Spring is in the air across the Northern Hemisphere. As winter is winding down, some are expecting the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic to fade along with it.
Last month, President Donald Trump predicted that the pandemic would end in April, as warmer temperatures move in. Others have speculated that heat and humidity have kept case counts relatively low in the tropics.
However, “It’s probably not something I’d put a lot of money on either way,” George Washington University arbovirologist Christopher Mores said.
In temperate countries, colds and flu rise and fall with the seasons. The COVID-19 virus is a respiratory disease much like the flu, and it’s closely related to coronaviruses that cause the common cold.
Based on how those other coronaviruses behave, one group of scientists predicts that COVID-19 cases may decline as Northern Hemisphere spring arrives.
But that won’t mean the virus is beaten. Their models show illnesses spiking again next winter.
Scientists don’t know all the reasons why colds and flu are seasonal, but one thought is that the viruses spread more easily when the air is dry, as it generally is in winter.
But humidity doesn’t seem to matter much to the COVID-19 virus, according to another group of researchers. They found the virus spread in many regions across China, from the cold, dry north to the warm, humid south.
And then there’s Singapore, a hot, humid country where transmission is ongoing.
Heat and humidity don’t completely stop the flu, either. Some studies show transmission declines closer to the equator, but influenza is still a major cause of hospitalization and death. And during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, tropical Mexico, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Guatemala were among the countries with the highest death rates.
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Meanwhile, vast majority of people recover from the new virus in a matter of weeks, but the outbreak has caused more than 5,000 deaths worldwide.
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